The first of the four Probaity Theory Worksheets will concentrate on the unknown. In particular, it will cover facts like where the unknown is and what direction it’s moving toward.
Using this information, we will build a scenario that best describes the situation in which we are currently. To do this, we’ll use the following problem: “We’ve been told that there is a gas leak in the building, but we don’t know how big it is or where it’s located. What if we had some pictures from the incident?”
Here is a procedure for solving this Probaity Theory Worksheet. First, we will be writing down what we know about the location of the unknown. To get started, write down the directions and sizes of all the leaks, including the vent, the doors, the stairwell, the floor vents, and any other areas you can think of. Make sure that you write down the direction of each of the leaks.
Now for the unknown direction. Write down anything you can think of, including the new directions for each of the other leaks, as well as any other information that you can think of. A good question to ask yourself at this point is “What direction does the new direction for the leaks follow?” Then do the same for the unknown.
Write down everything you know about the location of the unknown. Now that you have written down all the things that you know, it’s time to consider what these things mean. What are we seeing?
Based on your new information, what can you conclude? If you see something new, then that means that there’s something new to discover. At this point, go back to step two and write down the direction of the new directions. Finally, if you see an old direction, then go back to step one and see if you can apply the same steps. If you don’t see the old direction, then that’s a bad sign, because it means that you’ve already found the other direction for the leak.
At this point, go back to step two and make note of what you have learned about the new directions. Now, take the next step, and add the new directions to the timeline, as well as the new position of the unknown. If you’ve already done this, then the odds are good that you have located the unknown. If you haven’t, then take a deep breath and proceed!
That’s it for the Probability Theory Worksheet. Think of this as the core of the process of finding out the location of the unknown.